Let’s start with the obvious question as to why people would purposefully search out and pick losers, and then we shall cover how they do it. You can lay bets, which is a good reason to find a loser, and if you can identify those that will not win, you can improve your chances of winning.
This article works for most forms of sports betting, but to make things a little easier to understand, this article specifically mentions horse racing.
Why are some serious gamblers searching out losers?
The reason revolves around betting models (mostly). They want to narrow the field so that they may apply their statistical and betting models for more consistent results.
For example, such a gambler may be faced with the racing form for a race that has 14 runners, but to the person picking the losers, there may only be eight possible winners. That gambler may then apply his or her betting model to the eight remaining horses to pick a winner. Below is an image showing how a person searching for losers may see the betting form.
The image shows a mere example of what a gambler may see if he or she specialises in finding losers. For example, he or she may have noticed that a certain horse has had a few runs where it has not been able to poke its nose in front, which means it may have grown into the habit of following rather than leading.
The gambler may have watched a few races and know that one of the horses keeps placing out of sheer luck rather that ability. The same data gathering may help the gambler notice if a horse performs poorly on certain ground or if a horse hasn’t run for a long time.
The gambler may keep up with the media and know if a horse is unlikely to win because the stable is under new management, or if there is a deal with one trainer/owner to another to set the pace for a race for another horse.
Similar Things Happen With Other Sports
For example, if you were placing a soccer accumulator bet and were looking for teams that won’t win, you could apply similar knowledge about past performance, trainers, home team advantage and so forth.
For example, if you were betting which players will win get through to the final in the darts tournaments, you could use what you know about their past performance and efforts under pressure to eliminate the ones you know won’t make it. That leaves a far narrower field for picking which player will make it all the way to the semis.
The Pros And Cons Of Lay Betting
Searching out losers so you can lay bets is just as risky as trying to search out winners so you may place bets. The pros revolve mostly around the prices you can get, and the fact that there is only one winner whereas there are several losers. The downside is that the odds and the returns are not usually worth the effort unless you have identified a false favourite.
Become An Expert At Finding False Favourites
The most valuable things you can find are false favourites. False favourites are ones that are not going to win, and then if you are lucky enough to find the real winner, you are likely to win a lot more because the odds will be better. If you can eliminate the favourite when you are gambling, you increase your chances of winning more money.
Has the media or Internet community created the favourite?
The public hype behind a team or racer is sometimes enough to make people bet on mass, which lowers the odds and may create a false favourite.
Did the favourite win last time?
If a team or racer won last time, then more punters will bet on them/it this time. This is especially true when it comes to racers, yet just because a racer won last time is far than solid evidence the same will happen again. Yet, people still place their bets and create false favourites as a result.
Each track has its own favourite-winner statistics
Racecourses seem to have very interesting statistics behind them. Believe it or not, but some courses seem to have more favourites win than others. The reasons are probably numerous and complex, suffice it to say it is worth checking out the favourite-winner statistics for each course and factoring them into your decision. You can look up similar data for games pitches and the like.
Jump favourites lose more often than flat favourites (duh!)
In horseracing, jump favourites win less frequently than they do on the flat because there is the added risk of falling.
When a racer or team has just dropped in class it/they will often be a false favourite
This seems to be true in a great many sports. When a team or racer drops down in class, league, etc, they always seem to attract very short odds. However, their winning frequency is rarely as high as common sense suggests it should be.
You Need To Engineer A Negative Bias
In other words, you need to start your gambling process with a negative bias. Once you have eliminated the ones you think will not win, you may start looking for the ones that will win amongst the few remaining options you have left yourself. You then apply your gambling technique or statistical model to fine-tune your selections and the amount you wager, and then you place your bets.
You are not losing anything with your negative bias. You simply help narrow the field so that when you use your positive bias and start looking for winners, you technically speaking have fewer margins for error. The better you become at finding the ones that will lose, then the higher the probability is that you will pick a winner. It may seem strange when you have trained yourself to search out winners, but try searching out losers first and then apply your talent to finding winners. You may be very pleased with the results.