Are you becoming increasingly frustrated with the cricket and how difficult it is to win a reasonable amount when live and fixed betting on it? Ideally, you should be collecting statistics and building betting models to help you make your choice, but whilst you are doing that, here are a few tips to help drastically improve your chances of winning.
Opt For Cert Favourites
Few overs matches have a close scoreline because they are often closely matched, but you will find frequent test matches that are very one-sided. Consequently, you will find there are a few favourites that are near certainties. Examine the statistics, the ground stats and the weather to be sure, and then bet on the favourites. You will get short odds, but with test matches, a one-sided game isn’t a risk, it is free money.
The Home Advantage
Examine the statistics carefully, but be aware that the home advantage seems to play a big part. This applies both to playing games in other countries and playing games locally. For example, if you are betting on teams from around the country, then you will find they often do better on their own ground. If you are betting on international matches, you will find the home-country advantage is often quite strong.
Home Conditions Offer A Big Advantage
Once again, examine the statistics to be more sure of your bet, and remember that home conditions add to the home advantage. For example, if an Indian team is playing in the UK, and the UK happens to be having a heat wave, then the home advantage may erode a little. On the other hand, if it is unseasonably chilly, it may affect the Indian team more significantly. Consider the conditions and how they will affect the home and visiting teams.
Home Team Odds
The bookies do factor in the home team effect and advantage, but it is just a small part of their overall decision-making process. There are many times when you can find good odds for home teams. Even if the match looks like it is going to be another one-sided test match for the home team, there are often reasonably-okay odds so that you can make some money by betting.
What About The Teams That Do Not Conform To The Home-Team Rule?
Yes, we are still going on about the home team advantage, and yes there are a few times when it doesn’t apply. Sadly, there is no way of knowing when a team is going to lose unless the match is very one-sided. Nevertheless, you need to examine your statistics and consider the fact that these things tend to happen in spurts. You will find a team suffers a rash of defeats during times when the home-team advantage fails them. There are often numerous other factors that are affecting their performance so that they undergo a period of losses. If you catch the warning signs, you may be able to avoid losing money on them.
How Will The Pitch Deteriorate?
You have to remember that as the pitch is played upon it is worn. Cracks aid the spinners and the bounce of the ball becomes uneven, which doesn’t favor the batters. The first few innings may yield more runs than the fourth innings simply because of the state of the pitch.
You have to factor in the state of the ground and how it will be during the days the game is being played. The bookies will enter a few assumptions into their odds generation, but their statistical models will both average the results (skewering them in your favor), and will assume things will remain more constant than the ground allows. As the wickets start to fall in the later stages, you will see the markets shift quickly.
Batting And Innings Runs
You will sometimes find that the market over-reacts to good batting as people pour their money on and bookies become nervous and alter their odds. The market may also react to good innings runs too. You have to look for good partnerships between two batsmen. You have to remember that the bookies have already set the odds for those two batsmen and they have factored them in, but their odds are often conservative.
This means you can make money by hunting down the batsmen that you think are going to make a great partnership and placing your bet before the magic happens. Live betting allows you to monitor the games and watch and see a pair of batsmen establish the sort of high-scoring partnership that changes matches and drastically alters the bookie’s odds.
New Batsmen Will Struggle
When live betting, it is important to remember that new batters are going to have trouble settling. Some bookies will look upon a new batter as a reason to dramatically alter the odds, and some will assume the same success/failure will continue with the newest batter. You too have a similar problem when there is a new batter, will their previous success/failure continue, or will the batter have trouble settling?
Statistically, the new batter will need a little time to settle in. However, your data may show otherwise. If you are gambling on a team that you do not have your own accumulated data for, then assume the new batter will have trouble settling in and allow that fact to guide your live bets. As a general rule, you may find it pays to blindly back unders each time a partnership hits a milestone such as 100 or 150.
Which Will Win With 40 and 50 Over Matches
It is in your interest to wait for the first innings to finish before you decide which team is going to win. Many 50 over matches draw to a finish with very close scorelines and a lot of volatility; however, statistically you may find that many are one way. Sometimes it seems a little more nail biting because the first team to bat is bowled out quickly and doesn’t set a high target for the next team.
After the first innings, you are able to build a better picture of the teams and their performance. You may also add in other factors such as how the weather and climate is affecting the players, and how the ground/pitch is performing. Fine tune your calculations and cross-check them with your statistics during the first innings and then make your bets.