Despite the fact that most regular and recreational punters know that weather affects play, very few actually weave weather conditions into their betting strategies as actionable/affective factors. The main reason for this is that it is very difficult to accurately predict how the weather will affect soccer teams, but even despite that fact, you can still make broad assumptions about the effects of the weather and how it "will" affect the teams.
Consider Where The Teams Practice
This should be an obvious one, but let’s cover it anyway. Let’s say there are two teams playing in France during a heat wave. One is a team from Brazil, and another is a team from Russia. In this case, it is obvious that the team from Brazil will have the advantage (in terms of weather tolerance) because the Brazilians are used to playing in the heat whereas the Russians are not. The same would apply if they were playing in Britain when there was frost on the ground, i.e. the Russian team would have the clear advantage because they often practice in cold weather.
The Weather Gives You An Advantage "If" You Keep Accurate Records
When working your betting system, you need to keep records of all the games you watch. Statistics that are found online are not detailed enough. For example, it may show that one team won, but whilst watching the match you may have seen that the winning goal came due to a cheating handball that went unnoticed, or you may have noticed that one team were sluggish whilst playing in sleet.
Factoring the weather into your betting strategies is tough because it is difficult to judge how much the weather affects each team. However, if you keep detailed records, you can determine how much you should factor in the weather. If you see that a team plays well in a certain type of weather, then make a note that they were playing well, and note the weather conditions. There may be some teams that are unaffected by the weather, and there may be others that are affected dramatically by the weather.
Which players are most affected by the cold weather? In truth, very few soccer players are affected by cold weather. Once they are warmed up and running around they often cannot feel the cold. However, in very harsh conditions, the goalkeeper will start to feel the cold, as will some of the defenders.
Explosive players may suffer from the cold. These are the players that mull around the other half’s side of the pitch, waiting for a perfect cross so that he may burst into a winning run and dramatic goal. He may run around a fair amount to keep warm, but he is going to want to conserve energy for the big push, which may mean he feels the cold more easily.
The same applies as above with cold weather, but there are also a few more factors to consider. Despite what you may read, frosty weather does not make the ball harder in soccer (it does in American Football/rugby). Frosty conditions make it harder for the goalkeeper to catch the ball. It also makes it harder for sliding tackles too.
A hard ground frost will slow a lot of players down, which means the explosive players may suffer again. It also means that a team with a strong passing game will have an advantage.
Some teams will be affected more than others depending on where the teams usually play. Many players from generally cold countries will suffer dramatically when playing in very hot weather. Such players often tire far quicker than they normally would. Usually it is only very hot weather that affects players, but again it depends on where you come from. A German team playing in Africa may suffer more greatly than if they play in Austria.
If a team practices in areas that are usually rainy, then the rain will not bother them. If a team practices in areas that are usually dry, then the rain may severely affect their game. Teams that usually practice in dry conditions usually set up a certain dynamic that is undermined by wet weather. The effects range from poorer shots to poor defensive play.
The rain doesn’t affect the goalkeeper’s ability to catch the ball, nor is it a distraction. If you are trying to factor the rain into your betting strategies, then factor it into matches where teams from dry countries are playing teams from rainy countries.
It can cause shots to change direction a little, which may make it more difficult to keepers to save them. It also changes the direction of long passes/crosses. If a team relies heavily on long crosses in the air, then this team may suffer in the wind.
It is imperative that you watch the games and take notes when the conditions are windy. Some players are so good that they can use the wind to ensure long crosses hit their mark. Many stadiums are built to keep the wind out, but do not let that fool you. Even a ball that is six feet off the ground may still be affected by the wind. In addition, the centre of the pitch may be exposed to vortex weather due to strong winds flying over the stadium.
What About Stadiums That Are Built To Keep The Weather Out?
There are stadiums that are built with domes and such, and they can keep out a lot of the wind, sleet, rain and such, but unless the stadium is covered, it cannot keep the weather out. In addition, heat, humidity, visibility and such will still be an issue if the stadium isn’t covered.
You may notice that some teams play better in some stadiums and not others. Take note of times when they play well and crosscheck it with the weather. Is the stadium set up to keep the wind out? Did they play well even though it was windy? Why does a team play poorly in the rain in one stadium but not another? Invest your time into taking detailed notes, and you can use them to create a more accurate betting strategy and gambling model.