There are a few key elements you can monitor both before the game and during the match that will give you a clear indication as to if the team you bet on will be winning or losing by the end of the first half. Know what to look for, and you can save a lot of loss when sports betting.
Does The Team Have A New Coach Or Manager?
There is often a lot of excitement when a new manager or coach is brought onto the team. Many fans often consider it an opportunity for the team to reach new heights. Many times the fans watch the players during matches and feel that they are far better than the new manager/coach allows. This is further reinforced when they watch the same players doing well within the world cup or European cup. Their passion for the players often makes the fans and punters blame the manager or coach for the errors and mistakes of the team. Therefore, when a new manager/coach comes on the scene, there is often a lot of enthusiasm.
I am not here to tell you that a new manager or coach will do a good job. I am simply pointing out that most new managers need a little while to settle into the job before any changes occur. New manager/coaches are like new shoes in that they take a little while to be worn in and quite often, the adjustment is painful. Whether you have a betting system based on stats and predictions, or you use your intuition, you need to consider a new coach/manager as if they were a large question mark because you have no idea how they are going to affect the players or game.
Tip - Bookies tend to overestimate the negative effect of a new coach or manager, however, their odds sometimes do not reflect this because so many punters bet on the team with the new manager/coach. You need to understand this dynamic and not allow yourself to be swayed by the odds in these cases.
A Team That Doesn’t Mind Losing
There are some teams that have had runs of losses and some teams have had periods of time where they have not scored a single goal. You don’t often see it higher up the league, but it happens all the time, especially with smaller and less-expensive teams. These are teams that are not "afraid" of losing, and that fact alone is a telling sign that they may be losing by the first half. These are the sorts of teams that often do better in the second half when they are still drawing. A team with this mentality will be happy to stroll around the pitch for the second half if they are losing in the first.
A team that doesn’t mind losing will also offer up some strange tactics. For example, you may see mid-fielders taking wild shots with the hope it will go in, and you will often see strikers try to run when they are surrounded by defenders. These are not the actions of a well-oiled team; they are the actions of a team that wants to win at all cost "because" they believe they are going to lose (not because they are losing). A team that is heavily favoured and hyped up is less likely to go through a game without scoring at least one goal. A team that is not favoured may start to relax into "accepting" loss and not being afraid of it.
Tip - Bookies do not take account of this phenomenon because they do not have to. The bookies can simply look at the stats to see that the team is having a bad run. On the flip side, if you notice a sudden reinvigoration in the team, maybe because of a new player or a bit of hype, then you can place a few small bets with very long odds and clean up as the team finally turns it around.
What Is The Team’s Motivation?
This element of play ties into the fact that some teams do not mind losing. Their motivation to win has been misaligned. I have heard lots of punters claim they can pick a win judging by the team’s motivation in the same way they can tell which boxer is going to win by which wants it more, but I have found this to be inconsistent.
My suggestion is that you do the opposite. You try to find which of the two teams has the least motivation to win. The other team may want to win because they will win a cup or because they will be relegated and so forth, and they are all good reasons to bet on the team, but I suggest you look for reasons why you shouldn’t bet. Examine the motivations for both teams and ask which is the least motivated and why. The other team may be playing to win the tournament, but their next match may be against a team they know they cannot beat. The underdogs may have a rivalry with the team they are playing and are looking to spoil their chances of a cup.
Tip - A negative bias may help you place other bets too. For example, looking for reasons why a striker may "not" want to score in the match, maybe a fear of aggravating an injury, can help you figure out which players are more likely to score so you can set your first-to-score bet with more accuracy.
Look For Repetitive Problems That Are Not Being Addressed
Remember you are looking for telling signs that the team you have bet on will be losing by the end of the first half when you are sports betting. You have to look for repetitive problems, such as goalkeepers that rarely save penalty shots, or defenders being too aggressive and giving away free kicks. These problems often take a while to iron out because they are usually a core part of the player(s) dynamic.
Consider the implications of these problems and ask yourself if they "may" cost the game. If the answer yes or maybe, then look for the problems during the first half. If you see the problem still exists as the game goes one, then consider withdrawing your bet and/or not placing an in-play bet.
Tip - Be very careful when you estimate the damage the repetitive error makes. Usually it is a series of lost opportunities or opportunities that do not mature. If the team appears to be creating a lot of opportunities; the damage caused by the repetitive error may be slight.