When it comes to live betting on soccer, there are loads of strategies out there you can adopt. There are almost as many strategies as there are people using them. And that’s how it should be. After all, the key to every great strategy is to develop a system that works for you. You take a general strategy and hone it to fit your playing style. That said, some strategies tend to be more rewarding than others.
Recently, there has been a lot of noise about a few of them, so here is my top pick, explained in simple terms.
The Over 1.5 Goals strategy is increasingly popular, especially as soccer games are known for their sometimes tremendous number of goals scored. This bet is a relatively easy one to understand. Statistically, most soccer games end up with at least 2 goals scored. They can end with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, etc. They can also end with neither side scoring, or, and this happens more often, with a score of 1-0 or 0-1. That said, the game were scores exceed 2 goals are more plentiful than those that don’t, so if you stick to your guns and place small bets on Over 1.5 Goals, chances are you will see a decent return on your investment.
The odds usually aren’t amazing when it comes to this kind of bet, but that’s exactly what you want. Low odds. You don’t want high odds, with high improbability factors. You want this work over 53 % of the time, so you can actually make some money with it.
Odds between 1.25 and 1.34 are acceptable. Odds lower than that should be excluded, because there is too much risk for too little reward.
Your money management should be based on a flat bet of 2 % of your bankroll. You can vary this a bit depending on your appetite for risk. If you like to play it safe, drop that to 1 % of your bank. If you’re a little more aggressive and aren’t particularly concerned with the final outcome of this strategy, feel free to increase your bet rate to 5 % of your bankroll.
Once you’ve worked that out, you want to pick the leagues with the highest amount of goals scored. So leagues like those in the Japan, Austria, or the Netherlands are good examples. You want leagues with high average scored goal ratios. 2.5 and more in over 50% of the games is the green light you’re looking for to start placing some bets!
However, if you want to maximize your winnings, only bet on the games that set an offensive team against a defensive team, or two offensive teams against each other. That should be about 85 % of the games. Remove all the other pairings from your bet list, the ones that only set defensive teams against each other. You don’t want to watch 90 minutes of passes!
Once you’ve got your list for the day, or if you don’t have time to bet every day, for the week, don’t rush and bet on the first bookie website offering you the odds you’re looking for. Shop around a bit! Pick the bookie with the best odds, and then… don’t place your bet!
Wait for the game to start. Odds tend to go up by a couple of points for some reason just after a game has begun. With this strategy, every little nudge in the right direction helps. Once the game is into its second or third minute, place your bets, sit back and enjoy the show.
With live betting, it is really important to watch as many of the games as you possibly can. In real time. The app on your smartphone won’t really cut it. Also, doing this at work is not recommended. Unless you run the place, you’re not exactly going to be putting the volume up, and commentary is also important.
If you have a day job, as I hope you do (!), only place live bets in the evenings or at weekends, from the peace and quiet of your couch. That way, you can take your time to get your pick list ready.
My current success rate is around the 77 % mark for this strategy, but people in my social circle are currently reporting mixed results. The lowest (she is a beginner though!) has a 54 % success rate, which in all fairness is not actually that bad, especially for someone who is just starting out. The highest rate is a staggering 89 %, but this guy spends is entire time watching soccer games!
Anyway, I hope this strategy proves useful to many of you out there.